Forecast decrease for winter crop production down under

Australia’s winter crop production is expected to decrease in 2017-18 as a result of unfavourable conditions in many key cropping regions, according to the latest Australian Crop Report by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).

ABARES Chief Commodity Analyst, Peter Gooday, said winter crop production is forecast to decrease 39 per cent in 2017-18 to 36.3 million tonnes.

“While this is a big fall from 2016-17 the latest forecast is two per cent above the 10-year average to 2015-16,” Mr Gooday said.

“Seasonal conditions were mixed for crops during winter and as a result the condition of crops at the start of spring varied significantly.

“The decrease for winter crop production largely reflects an expected fall in yields from the exceptionally high yields of 2016–17.”

Production decreases are forecast for the three major winter crops with wheat production forecast to decrease by 38 per cent to 21.6 million tonnes, barley production by 40 per cent to 8.0 million tonnes and canola production by 33 per cent to 2.8 million tonnes.

Amongst other crops, chickpea production is forecast to fall by 36 per cent to 1.2 million tonnes and oat production is forecast to fall by 45 per cent to 1.0 million tonnes.

“These forecasts will only be achieved if spring rainfall is sufficient and timely, especially in central west New South Wales and the Eyre and Yorke peninsulas in South Australia,” Mr Gooday said.

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About The Author

John Swire - Editor of Agronomist and Arable Farmer as well as responsibility for the Agronomist and Arable Farmer and Farm Business websites. After 17 years milking cows on the family farm John started writing about agriculture in 1998 and has since written for a variety of publications and has developed a wide circle of contacts within the industry. When not working John is a season ticket holder at Stoke City and also of late has become a fitness freak, listing cycling, swimming and walking as his exercises of choice.